Can BJP win the battle for 131 seats in south India?

To some political observers, the upcoming Lok Sabha election is a political fight along the so-called north-south divide. After the Congress' recent strong showing in Karnataka and Telangana, can the BJP win this battle in the south for 131 Lok Sabha seats?

The recent assembly election results have triggered a debate centred around the north-south divide with some Congress leaders and their allies claiming that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is primarily a north India party. The comments were aimed at the two consecutive losses the BJP suffered in south India — in Karnataka and Telangana. This was also to drive home the point that the BJP is no longer in power in any major south Indian state, though it is part of the ruling alliance in Puducherry.Going by political groupings in the South, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) governs Puducherry, while the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) governs Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Telangana. Andhra Pradesh is under a non-aligned YSR Congress Party headed by chief minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, who led his party to sweeping victories in the last assembly and Lok Sabha elections in 2019.South India seats: BJP vs Congress Overall, the seven states and Union Territories — Lakshadweep included — send 131 members to the Lok Sabha. The Congress won 28 parliamentary seats all put together in five states in 2019 — Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Telangana. The BJP was limited to winning seats only in Karnataka and Telangana, but still secured a lead of one seat over the Congress in the South.

Vote share: BJP vs CongressIn terms of votes polled by the Congress in 2019 across south Indian parliamentary constituencies, it looked to be much stronger than the BJP. Even in Telangana, where the BJP won four seats, one more than the Congress, the latter polled more votes — over 10 percentage points — than the former. Karnataka, which was at the time under a Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) government at the state level, was the exception as the BJP scored more than 50% of votes polled in the Lok Sabha election.The Lok Sabha election results were followed by the collapse of the Congress-JD(S) government a little over a month after the parliamentary poll results were announced as 17 MLAs defected from the ruling coalition.Coming to Kerala, while the Left Front and the Congress have been traditional rivals for decades, the BJP has been trying to increase its mass base and aims to open its account in the state in 2024.

A broad vote share of the southern states/UTs shows that the BJP is weaker than the Congress in the South although it ended up winning more seats in 2019. The Congress looks more robust when part of an alliance in southern states. In Tamil Nadu for example, where it is allied with the DMK, the coalition won 38 of the 39 LS seats.In Kerala, the Congress-led alliance won 19 of the 20 seats in 2019. If the current INDIA coalition partners had contested the 2019 elections together five years ago, the alliance would have swept Kerala and the two Union territories in the region.Thus, with the same seat distribution, the INDIA coalition would have won 63 of 131 seats in south India in 2019. In terms of vote share too, the INDIA bloc would have done better than the NDA.

Let’s have a look at the state-wise standings of the two rivals.Kerala: Focus on 4 seatsHaving failed to break through the parliamentary circle in Kerala, the BJP is now aiming for only selected seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha election. Four seats are its priority — Thrissur, Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta and Attingal in Thiruvananthapuram district.

In 2019, the BJP fielded actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi from Thrissur LS seat and secured 28.2% of the polled votes — up from the 11.15% polled by party veteran KP Sreesan in 2014. Gopi finished third but he ensured about a 17 percentage-point rise in the BJP’s vote share in a constituency that has alternated between the 2019-winner Congress and the CPI-M for over 30 years.In Thiruvananthapuram, the BJP’s best bet is O Rajagopal — whenever he has contested here, the party’s vote share has jumped, with 2014 being the best performance when he scared incumbent MP Shashi Tharoor of the Congress. Tharoor won with 34.09% of the polled votes, while Rajagopal was close behind at 32.32%. In the last three elections, the BJP has maintained over 30% vote share in this constituency. This, in fact, is the only Lok Sabha seat in Kerala where the BJP has been the runner-up in the last two parliamentary elections.Pathanamthitta seat became a focus of the BJP during the Sabarimala protests prior to the 2019 election. Though the Congress won this seat, Kerala BJP president K Surendran, who opposed the entry of women aged 10-50 into the Sabarimala temple, pushed up the party’s vote share by 13 percentage points — 15.95% in 2014 to 28.97% in 2019.

Kerala BJP’s woman face Shobha Surendran, meanwhile, has raised the party’s hopes for the Attingal seat — a Left bastion breached by the Congress in 2019. Finishing third in 2019, she secured 24.97% of the polled votes, up from 10.53% in 2014.

For the remaining 16 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the BJP is contesting to increase its mass base. The party sees a fair chance of opening its account in Kerala this Lok Sabha polls as it tries to woo the influential Ezhava community (23% of Kerala’s population).Tamil Nadu: Vocal about TamilTamil Nadu is one state in the south where the BJP has failed to make headway on its own. In 2014, it won one seat but failed to open its account in 2019 despite allying with the AIADMK, which won the lone seat for the NDA as the DMK-Congress coalition swept the polls here.

But the BJP has since upped its efforts, with state president K Annamalai — a former IPS officer — asserting that the best way to expand the party’s mass base is to contest alone. The party won four seats — up from one in 2014 — in the Tamil Nadu legislative assembly in 2021 as a junior partner of the AIADMK. Back in 2001, it had won four assembly seats as a junior partner of the DMK.PM Modi has been vocal about Tamil culture. The central government has organised events such as Kashi-Tamil Sangamam, which started in 2022. Modi also received the Sengol from Adheedhaam priests from Tamil Nadu for installing the gold-plated silver sceptre in the new Parliament building last year.

But will this outreach translate into votes in 2024 polls? The 2022 urban local body poll results will not give much hope to the BJP, which it contested alone and won just 1.6% (22) of the 1,374 corporation wards and only 1.5% (56) of the 2,843 municipal wards.At the town panchayat level, the BJP could win 3% (230) of the 7,621 seats. Overall, the BJP secured 2.4% (308) of the 12,838 seats where polling happened.But there is a silver lining. Kanyakumari is turning into a BJP stronghold. Of its 308 seats, 199 came from Kanyakumari. And one of its four assembly seats came from here in 2021.However, come the parliamentary polls, the BJP is unlikely to spring a surprise if it contests alone. With its ally, the AIADMK pulling out of the NDA, the party may be eyeing a fresh tie-up in Tamil Nadu. In a public rally held in Tamil Nadu, Modi paid glowing tributes to actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth, who passed away in December. There is speculation that the BJP may tie up with the Vijayakanth-founded DMDK, now headed by his wife Premlatha.Andhra Pradesh: Shedding 'promise breaker' tagAndhra Pradesh has been a difficult state for the BJP due to unstable alliances. It hoped that the Modi wave would change the party’s fortunes, particularly after BJP stalwart from the state — M Venkaiah Naidu — was elevated as the Vice President of India in 2017. But the party’s vote share only nosedived in Andhra Pradesh — from 7.22% in 2014 Lok Sabha polls to 0.98% in 2019. In the assembly polls, its vote share slipped from 4.13% in 2014 to 0.84% in 2019.In 2014, BJP contested the polls in alliance with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) of former CM N Chandrababu Naidu and the Jana Sena Party (JSP) of actor-politician Pawan Kalyan. In 2019, the BJP fought on its own.The BJP is seen as a promise-breaker in certain segments of Andhra Pradesh. When the state was bifurcated to carve out Telangana as a separate state, the Manmohan Singh-led UPA government promised to give Special Category Status (SCS) to Andhra Pradesh. But the Modi government — after the BJP’s 2014 victory — offered a special package instead. This was a major issue over which Chandrababu Naidu walked out of the NDA in 2018.However, with the YSRCP sweeping both the parliamentary and state polls in 2019 and the Congress eyeing a revival by pitting siblings — Jagan Mohan and YS Sharmila — against each other, there are indications that Naidu may join hands with the BJP again. Naidu’s TDP is not part of the INDIA bloc and has already allied with Kalyan’s party JSP. This prepares the ground for a 2014-like alliance with the BJP joining the coalition. Like in Kerala, the BJP is keen on a few selected seats. The BJP has reportedly identified 10 Lok Sabha seats where it claims “considerable strength and support”. But its real focus is on these five —Visakhapatnam, Araku, Kakinada, Rajampet and Tirupati. These are the seats that the BJP has won in the past or expanded its mass base through the activities of outfits such as RSS’ Vanavasi Kalyan Ashram. If Naidu and Kalyan accommodate the BJP, the national party may again be on a soaring path in Andhra Pradesh. Both Kalyan and Naidu are said to be in favour of the tie-up but Naidu’s son Nara Lokesh has some reservations and so do a section of state BJP leaders.Telangana: Recovering from 2023 assembly poll setbackCompared to Andhra Pradesh, the BJP is on a stronger footing here. Having joined the movement for a separate state as part of the Joint Action Committee (JAC), the BJP won five assembly seats and a Lok Sabha seat in 2014 from the newly-formed Telangana. The BJP vote share in the assembly election was 7.1% and in the Lok Sabha polls it was 10.1%.In the 2018 assembly polls, the BJP won four seats with a marginal dip in the vote share at 6.92%. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP surprised many by winning four of the 17 parliamentary seats, with its vote share touching 20% (19.65).

Suddenly, it was being seen as the principal challenger of the K Chandrashekar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS, earlier known as Telangana Rashtra Samithi).But the party seems to have lost its momentum as the Congress stormed to power with a majority of its own in the 2023 assembly polls. Anti-incumbency against the BRS that helped the BJP in 2018 and 2019 polls worked against the BJP in 2023. The party looked to go soft on BRS leaders — K Chandrasekhar Rao and K Kavitha — amid allegations of corruption against them. KCR, who once projected himself as a challenger to PM Modi, decided to stay out of INDIA and his critics alleged that a truck with the BJP has ensured no Enforcement Directorate action against his family members.The result was that though the BJP won seven assembly seats, almost doubling its vote share to 13.9% in 2023 compared to 2018, three of its MPs lost the state polls.However, there was a silver lining – BJP’s Venkata Ramana scored the biggest win in the Telangana polls — defeating KCR and Congress’ Revanth Reddy, the current CM, by a margin of over 6,000 votes from the Kamareddy seat.The BJP is also said to have paid the price for replacing Bandi Sanjay Kumar with Union minister G Kishen Reddy as the state president. Reddy has reportedly now conveyed to the central leadership that he doesn’t want to continue as the state unit chief. The return of Sanjay Kumar and a formal or tacit understanding with KCR’s BRS to fight the resurgent Congress are on the cards in Telangana. This augurs well for the BJP in 2024.Karnataka: Loss in 2023, but still hopefulKarnataka has been the BJP’s lotus pond in the south, having formed the government multiple times in the state. However, the 2023 assembly election result is a sign that the 2024 Lok Sabha campaign will have its share of challenges for the BJP. Congress recorded its largest vote and seat shares — 43% and 135 MLAs in the 224-member assembly, respectively — since 1989. In contrast, the BJP won 66 seats with 36% vote share. Interestingly, with a similar voting percentage in 2018, the party had won 104 seats.

This may come as a surprise to many but the BJP has never polled more votes than the Congress in any Karnataka assembly election.But the story is starkly different in the general elections in which the BJP has been consistently polling more votes than the Congress since 2009 in Karnataka.

It has also secured more seats than the Congress since 1998, except for the 1999 polls, irrespective of which party is in power locally in the state.

The graphics above show that Karnataka favours the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. This explains why the BJP, despite a massive loss in the assembly election in 2023, is still hopeful of winning all 28 Lok Sabha seats.Can the BJP breach south citadel beyond Karnataka?The alliance picture is not clear on either side yet. The INDIA bloc is finding it hard to decide on an agreeable seat-sharing formula for each of the states. South India is no different. There is a possibility that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) may end up competing against its INDIA partner CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala. This may open a window of opportunity for the BJP, whose women’s rally addressed by Modi recently drew a crowd of about two lakh, as it eyes its first Lok Sabha seat in the state.In Karnataka, the Congress is likely to contest the national election alone, while the BJP and the JD(S) of HD Deve Gowda may join hands again to defeat the Congress. Given the BJP’s track record in Karnataka, such an alliance could be a formidable challenge for the Congress to replicate its assembly election showing.In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP looks poised to join the Naidu-Kalyan coalition with an eye on a handful of seats. An understanding with a weak-looking KCR (who had been unwell) may strengthen the BJP in the fight for the 17 seats of Telangana, where the party would be happy to repeat its 2019 performance if not do better.The BJP’s real challenge will be Tamil Nadu, where it hopes that PM Modi’s Tamil outreach, coupled with a last-minute truck with actor-turned-aspiring politician Rajinikanth or Premlatha, Vijayakanth's wife will spring a surprise.