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A batch of the best highlights from what Tyler's read, .
For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded. It would be facile to reduce superforecasting to a bumper-sticker slogan, but if I had to, that would be it.
Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
In his classic article “The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville,” Buffett wrote that the market valued the company at $80 million when “you could have sold the assets to any one of ten buyers for not less than $400 million.… You don’t try and buy businesses worth $83 million for $80 million. You leave yourself an enormous margin. When you build a bridge, you insist it can carry 30,000 pounds, but you only drive 10,000-pound trucks across it. And that same principle works in investing.”
Richer, Wiser, Happier
William Green
Unlike infinite play, finite play is limited from without; like infinite play, those limitations must be chosen by the player since no one is under any necessity to play a finite game. Fields of play simply do not impose themselves on us. Therefore, all the limitations of finite play are self-limitations.
Finite and Infinite Games
James Carse
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