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Increasing Returns (Order) in a System is a Product of Disorder, Numerosity, and Feedback
Summary:
Disorder, in tandem with feedback, leads to order.
Feedback occurs when information is transmitted and found by others, creating a cycle. This feedback, combined with disorder, results in the phenomenon of increasing returns, where random decisions influence subsequent decisions.
Increasing returns in a system depend on disorder, feedback, and the involvement of a sufficient number of individuals.
Transcript:
Speaker 1
The next one on the list will be feedback. So the disorder only in tandem with feedback is going to lead to order. And the and trail again, an example, the feedback is coming from one end going out, finding something interesting as happenstance by accident. And then it leaves information. Another and finds it. And that's where the feedback starts. And this feedback is, you know, just like, I believe, Brian Arthur was talking about increasing returns. Initially, something random happens. Someone makes a random decision and a few more, say, people make a random decision. And that leads other people to not make a random decision, but make a decision based on that previous one. So this increasing returns phenomenon is a combination of disorder and feedback. And of course, the morosity, you need a few people to make it happen.
The 10 Features of Complex Systems — Part 1
Simplifying Complexity
Have we overshot the scale at which humans can effectively coordinate?
Summary:
We need Jim Rutt to join the conversation to discuss whether we have exceeded our ability to coordinate effectively.
The slow progress of science and the population growth curve are related to this question. Sam Bowles and his work on behavioral engineering and the return of civil society are also important in this discussion.
We are currently witnessing a clash between institutions and individuals, and something has to give.
Transcript:
Speaker 3
We need Jim Rutt on this conversation right because ultimately this is about have we actually overshot the scale at which we can effectively coordinate and all these studies like you Know this I know it's controversial but like the slowed canonical progress of science these kinds of questions they seem related in a way to the sigmoidal curve of population growth. Have we risen above a level at which intelligibility can actually happen and if so where was that level. I mean I remember you know Sam Bowles is another person who has been looming large for me over this whole conversation not only for his work on the problems of viewing humans as agents That can be governed through behavioral engineering via incentive but also because of the paper that he wrote with Wendy Carlin the article he wrote in Vox EU in 2020 on the battle for The COVID-19 narrative which talked about the return of the civil society you know meaning that the Mesoscopic world of guilds and church groups and sports clubs and pubs and neighborhood Organizations mutual aid networks and all of these other human scale sub-done bar number structures that we found ourselves suddenly very much in need of and yet were eroded by the Radical success of both state power and market power in every way it feels like we are in a kind of clash of the titans right now we're like you know we watch institutions going up against Large institutions and people are struggling to remain unpolverized underfoot. At some point something has to give right.
Paul Smaldino & C. Thi Nguyen on Problems With Value Metrics & Governance at Scale
COMPLEXITY: Physics of Life
One misconception about highly successful cultures is that they are happy, lighthearted places. This is mostly not the case. They are energized and engaged, but at their core their members are oriented less around achieving happiness than around solving hard problems together. This task involves many moments of high-candor feedback, uncomfortable truth-telling, when they confront the gap between where the group is, and where it ought to be. Larry Page created one of these moments when he posted his “These ads suck” note in the Google kitchen. Popovich delivers such feedback to his players every day, usually at high volume.
The Culture Code
Daniel Coyle
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