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Simply stated, the value of a business today is the sum of all the money it will make in the future
Zero to One_ Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future
Peter Thiel
Then I realized people pay for certainty. They value certainty. I call this “the perceived likelihood of achievement.” In other words, “How likely do I believe it is that I will achieve the result I am looking for if I make this purchase?”
$100M Offers
Alex Hormozi
Bayesian philosophers see the conditional relationship as more basic than that of joint events - that is, more compatible with the organization of human knowledge. In this view, B serves as a pointer to a context or frame of knowledge, and A I B stands for an event A in the context specified by B (e.g. , a symptom A in the context of a disease B).Consequently, empirical knowledge invariably will be encoded in conditional probability statements, whereas belief in joint events (if it is ever needed) will be computed from those statements via the product peA, B) = peA I B) P(B), (1.9) which is equivalent to (1.8).
Judea Pearl - Causality_ Models, Reasoning, and Inference-Cambridge University Press
2000
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