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The most valuable knowledge is always discovered last: but the most valuable knowledge consists of methods.
The Will to Power
Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche
Men are like clouds. They are driven forward by a mysterious and invisible wind against which they are powerless. They think they are in control and laugh at the weakness of the clouds, but their wind is a thousand times stronger than the one blowing up there.
The best market size estimates are both surprising and convincing. To be surprising is the art of the presentation. To be convincing, you want to estimate your market size in at least two different ways.
First, use Fermi estimates to determine the number of people who will buy your product (top-down market sizing). This requires general stats like 300 million Americans, 8 billion world population, 30 million US businesses, and domainspecific stats like 6 million annual pregnancies.
Second, use SEC filings of comparable companies in the industry to get empirical revenue figures and sum these up (bottom-up market sizing). Bottom-up is generally more reliable. Be sure you are not drawing boundaries too big or optimistic. “If we get only 1% of China…” is a bad start. One of the most convincing things you can do with a bottoms-up estimate is to link or screenshot an invoice with a high price point.
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