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Your instinctive willingness to believe something will change along with your willingness to afliate with people who are known for believing it—quite apart from whether the belief is actually true. Some people may be reluctant to believe that God does not exist, not because there is evidence that God does exist, but rather because they are reluctant to afliate with Richard Dawkins or those darned “strident” atheists who go around publicly saying “God does not exist.”
Rationality: From AI to Zombies
Eliezer Yudkowsky
When we think in bets, we run through a series of questions to examine the accuracy of our beliefs. For example:
• Why might my belief not be true?
• What other evidence might be out there bearing on my belief?
• Are there similar areas I can look toward to gauge whether similar beliefs to mine are true?
• What sources of information could I have missed or minimized on the way to reaching my belief?
• What are the reasons someone else could have a different belief, what’s their support, and why might they be right instead of me?
• What other perspectives are there as to why things turned out the way they did?
Thinking in Bets
Annie Duke
Flutists and harpists do not adjust their melody or rhythm according to the taste of the multitude, they base it on what suits themselves. Why, then, should the wise man, who is the practitioner of a far greater art, follow the pleasure of the crowd, instead of pursuing the truth without regard to popular pressures?
On the Good Life
Marcus Tullius Cicero
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