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But actually, since more than half the students didn’t finish by the time they were 99% sure they’d be done, reality usually delivers results a little worse than the ‘worst-case scenario’. It’s called the planning fallacy, and the best way to fix it is to ask how long things took the last time you tried them.
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Finding the right balance between cooperation and competition has been the goal and bane of Western politics for centuries
The Red Queen: Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature
Matt Ridley
Caesar would one day defy the Senate and lead Rome into civil war, but everything we know about his nature argues against bloody revolts and conspiracy theories. Caesar had for years been carefully, step by step, building his credentials as a proven military leader and sensible populist politician. Even though his enemies would naturally look back at his career in later years and accuse him of revolutionary plans from the cradle, Caesar was not the kind of man who would unnecessarily risk his career by supporting a violent coup d’état.
Julius Caesar
Philip Freeman
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