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A batch of the best highlights from what Louis's read, .
The best market size estimates are both surprising and convincing. To be surprising is the art of the presentation. To be convincing, you want to estimate your market size in at least two different ways.
First, use Fermi estimates to determine the number of people who will buy your product (top-down market sizing). This requires general stats like 300 million Americans, 8 billion world population, 30 million US businesses, and domainspecific stats like 6 million annual pregnancies.
Second, use SEC filings of comparable companies in the industry to get empirical revenue figures and sum these up (bottom-up market sizing). Bottom-up is generally more reliable. Be sure you are not drawing boundaries too big or optimistic. “If we get only 1% of China…” is a bad start. One of the most convincing things you can do with a bottoms-up estimate is to link or screenshot an invoice with a high price point.
Eric-Jorgenson_The-Anthology-of-Balaji.indd
readwise.io
Then I realized people pay for certainty. They value certainty. I call this “the perceived likelihood of achievement.” In other words, “How likely do I believe it is that I will achieve the result I am looking for if I make this purchase?”
$100M Offers
Alex Hormozi
There were many ways down Mount Fuji, according to my guidebook, but only one way up. Life lesson in that, I thought.
Shoe Dog
Phil Knight [Phil Knight]
...catch up on these, and many more highlights
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