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How do and should we form and change opinions? Logic tells us to avoid inconsistencies and incoherences. Language tells us to attend to how meaning is inferred from ambiguous language. Decision theory says to distinguish values from fact opinion, and says exactly how decisions should respond to these. Regarding fact opinion, Bayesian theory says to distinguish priors from likelihoods, and says exactly how fact opinion should respond to evidence.
Overcoming Bias : Standard Biases
Robin Hanson
Then I realized people pay for certainty. They value certainty. I call this “the perceived likelihood of achievement.” In other words, “How likely do I believe it is that I will achieve the result I am looking for if I make this purchase?”
$100M Offers
Alex Hormozi
Why sex? Surely there are features of human nature other than this one overexposed and troublesome procreative pastime: True enough, but reproduction is the sole goal for which human beings are designed;
The Red Queen: Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature
Matt Ridley
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