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But something strange began to happen after the second or third generations of trees were planted. The first generation had flourished in the absence of competition for soil and nutrients, but in the following generations, those same ecosystems collapsed, with dramatic production losses of 20-30%.
Productive Disorder: The Hidden Power of Chaos, Noise, and Randomness
Tiago Forte
The supposedly “scientific” management of forests led to ecological problems so severe that multiple generations of restoration ecology have been needed to restore the previous diversity in insects, flora, and fauna. Germany continues to struggle with the lasting effects of monoculture forestry to this day, most recently in 2018 due to the mounting effects of climate change.
Productive Disorder: The Hidden Power of Chaos, Noise, and Randomness
Tiago Forte
Here, public markets provide the best basis for recalibrating private growth valuations because public markets tend to see the effects of decreased valuations first. For instance, in the current market (as the graph below shows), median public company software valuations have dropped from 12x forward revenue to 5x or less since highs in October 2021, representing an almost 60% decline. The same goes for fintech and consumer internet companies, which are also down over 70-80%.
A Framework for Navigating Down Markets
Martin Casado
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