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Early pioneers of AI, including the political scientist Herbert Simon, realized that AI technology has more in common with markets, bureaucracies, and political institutions than with simple engineering applications. Another pioneer of artificial intelligence, Norbert Wiener, described AI as a “cybernetic” system—one that can respond and adapt to feedback.

Spirals of Delusion

foreignaffairs.com

So, even if you have an RCT showing positive effect, there’s still perhaps a 20-50% chance that the true effect is near zero.

Is It Fair to Say That Most Social Programmes Don’t Work?

80000hours.org

No longer do we drive places to acquire things: we summon the things to us.

Crossings

Ben Goldfarb

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