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That’s also true of decision-making. Even if you aren’t explicitly thinking about the set of possibilities, your preferences, and the probabilities, you are still making these estimates. Implicit in any decision is the belief that the option you choose has the highest probability of working out better for you than the options you don’t choose. Therefore, whether you acknowledge it or not, making a decision is making a guess about how things might turn out.

How to Decide

Annie Duke

Charlie’s approach to investing is quite different from the more rudimentary systems used by most investors. Instead of making a superficial stand-alone assessment of a company’s financial information, Charlie conducts a comprehensive analysis of both the internal workings of the investment candidate as well as the larger, integrated ecosystem in which it operates. He calls the tools he uses to conduct this review his multiple mental models.

Poor Charlie’s Almanack

Charles T. Munger, Peter D. Kaufman, John Collison, and Warren Buffett

What are the characteristics of all these products? First of all, they are very imaginative. Second, one has to be very patient and work on them for a very long time. I was thinking if our company could make a similar product. I'm not saying it's better to do things slowly. Speed is determined by the thing itself, but if the thing needs to be very imaginative, and you've only been doing it for two years, meanwhile there are a lot of people saying, "Geez, this won't work”, will these strong expectations from the outside affect our continuous investment?

Zhang Yiming’s Last Speech

interconnected.blog

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