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One way you might think about this investment is to focus on the most likely outcome. We've seen that focusing on the median of a distribution is useful in deciding how much to bet on a coin flip, but the return pattern of these bonds is very negatively asymmetric as compared to the coin flip situations we've been discussing.
The Missing Billionaires
Victor Haghani and James White
As proud as I am of our progress and our inventions, I know that we will make mistakes along the way—some will be self-inflicted, some will be served up by smart and hard-working competitors. Our passion for pioneering will drive us to explore narrow passages, and, unavoidably, many will turn out to be blind alleys. But—with a bit of good fortune—there will also be a few that open up into broad avenues.
Invent and Wander
Walter Isaacson and Jeff Bezos
Ninety percent of life is just going about your business. It’s a meeting at work, a trip to the supermarket, or small talk with another parent while dropping the kids off at school. And usually there are other people around. In these normal moments of life, you’re not staring deeply into another’s eyes or unveiling profound intimacies. You’re just doing stuff together—not face-to-face but side by side. You are accompanying each other.
How to Know a Person
David Brooks
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