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You are only as young as the last time you changed your mind.
Excellent Advice for Living
Kevin Kelly
There is a tight link between this problem of estimation, about which you have a clear intuition, and the problem of overall error measurement that concerns us here. They are, in fact, two sides of the same coin. That is because the best estimate is one that minimizes the overall error of the available measurements. Accordingly, if your intuition about the mean being the best estimate is correct, the formula you use to measure overall error should be one that yields the arithmetic mean as the value for which error is minimized.
Noise
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein
When this call was held in February 2015, Apple's market cap was indeed "on the order of $700 billion." Later in the call, Musk was asked about how high operating margins could get, and he estimated around 10-15 percent, based on the company's 30 percent gross margins and how many percentage points would have to go into operating expenses.
Shopify: A Rake Not Far Enough
memosbyhh.com
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