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Similarly, the hedge fund known as Long-Term Capital Management64 recently collapsed through overconfidence in its highly leveraged methods, despite IQs of its principals that must have averaged 160. Smart, hardworking people aren’t exempted from professional disasters from overconfidence. Often, they just go aground in the more difficult voyages they choose, relying on their self-appraisals that they have superior talents and methods.

Poor Charlie’s Almanack

Charles T. Munger, Peter D. Kaufman, John Collison, and Warren Buffett

Chanos, who leased office space from Soros’s Quantum Fund in midtown New York between 1988 and 1991, agrees. “One thing that I’ve both wrestled with and admired that Soros conquered many years ago is the ability to go from long to short, the ability to turn on a dime when confronted with the evidence. Emotionally that is really hard.”

Plutocrats

Chrystia Freeland

The first product requirement, “when a user takes a photo, check whether they are in a national park”, is a computational problem. We can project all the points on earth onto a 2D plane, create a polygon representing the area of all national parks, and then check if a particular GPS location is within that polygon. We can clearly express the rules that turn an input (the user’s GPS location) into an output (whether they are in a national park).

Shifting to an AI Mindset

blog.ravi-mehta.com

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