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Hillis: But it's also presumably true that making correct predictions is only part of what the intelligence community is there for. It's also there for coming up with stories that support whatever the decision is.
Tetlock: Yes, storytelling is indeed arguably the basis on which analysts are ultimately promoted or stay stagnant.
Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class I | Edge.org
edge.org
Arguing inhibits our ability to learn how the other person sees the world. When we argue, we tend to trade conclusions – the “bottom line”
Difficult Conversations
Douglas Stone, Bruce Patton, Sheila Heen
Abraham Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address was 272 words and lasted less than three minutes; Winston Churchill’s “Blood, Toil, Tears and Sweat” speech was 688 words and just over five minutes. The most powerful emotional expression two humans can say to each other is just three words: “I,” “love,” and “cake.”
Do You Talk Funny?
David Nihill
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