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In 1758, when Prussia’s King Frederick the Great battled Russian forces at Zorndorf, he sent a messenger to the youngest Prussian general, Friedrich Wilhelm von Seydlitz, who commanded a cavalry unit. “Attack,” the messenger said. Seydlitz refused. He felt the time wasn’t right and his forces would be wasted. The messenger left but later returned. Again he told Seydlitz the king wanted him to attack. Again Seydlitz refused. A third time the messenger returned and he warned Seydlitz that if he didn’t attack immediately, the king would have his head. “Tell the King that after the battle my head is at his disposal,” Seydlitz responded, “but meanwhile I will make use of it.” Finally, when Seydlitz judged the time right, he attacked and turned the battle in Prussia’s favor. Frederick the Great congratulated his general and let him keep his head. This story, and others like it, notes Muth, “were collective cultural knowledge within the Prussian officer corps, recounted and retold countless times in an abundance of variations during official lectures, in the officer’s mess, or in the correspondence between comrades.” The fundamental message: think. If necessary, discuss your orders. Even criticize them. And if you absolutely must—and you better have a good reason—disobey them.
Superforecasting
Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner
When we are confronted with evidence that challenges our deeply held beliefs we are more likely to reframe the evidence than we are to alter our beliefs. We simply invent new reasons, new justifications, new explanations. Sometimes we ignore the evidence altogether.
Black Box Thinking
Matthew Syed
MINIMAL GROUP PARADIGM
If you group people by a trivial category, e.g. favorite ice cream flavor, the groups will become tribal, display in-group favoritism, and discriminate against other groups. So even if you end racism & sexism, people will find other reasons to discriminate.
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