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Vul and Pashler wanted to find out if the same effect extends to occasion noise: can you get closer to the truth by combining two guesses from the same person, just as you do when you combine the guesses of different people? As they discovered, the answer is yes. Vul and Pashler gave this finding an evocative name: the crowd within.
Noise
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein
What matters can’t be forecast and what can be forecast doesn’t matter. Believing otherwise lulls us into a false sense of security.
Superforecasting
Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner
In a survey of attitudes toward deception conducted a few years ago, which involved thousands of people in fifty-eight countries around the world, 63 percent of those asked said the cue they most used to spot a liar was “gaze aversion.” We think liars in real life behave like liars would on Friends—telegraphing their internal states with squirming and darting eyes. This is—to put it mildly—nonsense. Liars don’t look away.
Talking to Strangers
Malcolm Gladwell
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