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The Crazy Idea Razor
If someone proposes a seemingly crazy idea:
(1) Are they a domain expert?
(2) Are they reasonable?
If yes on (1) and (2), you should take the idea seriously, as it may be an asymmetric bet on the future.
“Razors” Are Rules of Th...
@SahilBloom on Twitter
experts cannot guarantee outcomes. They cannot promise that they will never make mistakes or that they will not fall prey to the same shortcomings that govern all human deliberations. They can only promise to institute rules and methods that reduce the chance of such mistakes and to make those errors far less often than a layperson might. If we are to accept the benefits of a profession’s work, we have to accept something less than perfection, perhaps even a certain amount of risk.
The Death of Expertise
Tom Nichols
19. Problem Selling:
Problem-solvers take an issue and break it down into small solvable chunks. Problem-sellers (e.g. politicians, the press) do the opposite: bundling many small issues into one big problem that looks insurmountable and terrifying.
My Friends, a New MEGATH...
@G_S_Bhogal on Twitter
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