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In 1758, when Prussia’s King Frederick the Great battled Russian forces at Zorndorf, he sent a messenger to the youngest Prussian general, Friedrich Wilhelm von Seydlitz, who commanded a cavalry unit. “Attack,” the messenger said. Seydlitz refused. He felt the time wasn’t right and his forces would be wasted. The messenger left but later returned. Again he told Seydlitz the king wanted him to attack. Again Seydlitz refused. A third time the messenger returned and he warned Seydlitz that if he didn’t attack immediately, the king would have his head. “Tell the King that after the battle my head is at his disposal,” Seydlitz responded, “but meanwhile I will make use of it.” Finally, when Seydlitz judged the time right, he attacked and turned the battle in Prussia’s favor. Frederick the Great congratulated his general and let him keep his head. This story, and others like it, notes Muth, “were collective cultural knowledge within the Prussian officer corps, recounted and retold countless times in an abundance of variations during official lectures, in the officer’s mess, or in the correspondence between comrades.” The fundamental message: think. If necessary, discuss your orders. Even criticize them. And if you absolutely must—and you better have a good reason—disobey them.
Superforecasting
Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Tocqueville Paradox: As the living standards in a society rise, the people’s expectations of the society rise with it. The rise in expectations eventually surpasses the rise in living standards, inevitably resulting in disaffection (and sometimes populist uprisings).
MEGATHREAD TIME: In 40 T...
@G_S_Bhogal on Twitter
is actually changing the way we read, the way we reason, even the way we think, and all for the worse. We expect information instantly. We want it broken down, presented in a way that is pleasing to our eye—no more of those small-type, fragile textbooks, thank you—and we want it to say what we want it to say. People do not do “research” so much as they “search for pretty pages online to provide answers they like with the least amount of effort and in the shortest time.”
The Death of Expertise
Tom Nichols
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