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This bias is revealed even more clearly in our relationship to leaders—if they express an opinion with heated words and gestures, colorful metaphors and entertaining anecdotes, and a deep well of conviction, it must mean they have examined the idea carefully to express it with such certainty. Those, on the other hand, who express nuances, whose tone is more hesitant, reveal weakness and self-doubt. They are probably lying, or so we think.
The Laws of Human Nature
Robert Greene
The Looking Paradox
Sometimes you have to stop looking in order to find what you're looking for.
Ever notice that when you're looking for something, you rarely find it?
Stop looking—what you’re looking for may just find you.
This applies to love, business, happiness, & life.
These Paradoxes Will Cha...
@SahilBloom on Twitter
Equal-weight models do well because they are not susceptible to accidents of sampling. The immediate implication of Dawes’s work deserves to be widely known: you can make valid statistical predictions without prior data about the outcome that you are trying to predict. All you need is a collection of predictors that you can trust to be correlated with the outcome.
Noise
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein
...catch up on these, and many more highlights
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