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PROSPECT THEORY
We hate losing money about twice as much as we like gaining it. Losing $10 upsets us roughly as much as gaining $20 pleases us. This bias favoring loss aversion over potential gain is the basis for much of our decision-making.
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In addition, stress (or any strong emotion) erodes the ability to perceive. Cortisol and other hormones released under stress interfere with the working of the prefrontal cortex. That is where perceptions are processed and decisions are made. You see less, hear less, miss more cues from the environment, and make mistakes. Under extreme stress, the visual field actually narrows. (Police officers who have been shot report tunnel vision.) Stress causes most people to focus narrowly on the thing that they consider most important, and it may be the wrong thing.
Deep Survival
Laurence Gonzales
What matters can’t be forecast and what can be forecast doesn’t matter. Believing otherwise lulls us into a false sense of security.
Superforecasting
Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner
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