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Nine Lies About Work
Marcus Buckingham, Ashley Goodall
Suppose you are using two predictors that are strongly predictive of the outcome—their correlations with the outcome are .60 (PC = 71%) and .55 (PC = 69%). Suppose also that the two predictors are correlated to each other, with a correlation of .50. How good would you guess your prediction is going to be when the two predictors are optimally combined? The answer is quite disappointing. The correlation is .67 (PC = 73%), higher than before, but not much higher. The example illustrates a general rule: the combination of two or more correlated predictors is barely more predictive than the best of them on its own.
Noise
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein
Cumulative Error: Mistakes grow. Beliefs are built on beliefs, so one wrong thought can snowball into a delusional worldview. Likewise, as an inaccuracy is reposted on the web, more is added to it, creating fake news. In our networked age, cumulative errors are the norm.
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