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Suppose you are using two predictors that are strongly predictive of the outcome—their correlations with the outcome are .60 (PC = 71%) and .55 (PC = 69%). Suppose also that the two predictors are correlated to each other, with a correlation of .50. How good would you guess your prediction is going to be when the two predictors are optimally combined? The answer is quite disappointing. The correlation is .67 (PC = 73%), higher than before, but not much higher. The example illustrates a general rule: the combination of two or more correlated predictors is barely more predictive than the best of them on its own.
Noise
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein
Agriculture demanded hard and unremitting exertion, and, in the prevailing mental climate, this was best secured when men knew they were working for children and grandchildren who would benefit from improvement as they would suffer from neglect. Agriculture demanded that the toilers should be attached to the soil, lest the always precarious supply of food should fail, and this attachment was best safeguarded when children were set to learn and love, at an age when they were at their most impressionable, the little peculiarities of the land they would one day inherit. Agriculture demanded that the fertility of the soil should be continuously nourished, not exploited for temporary gain; and the long view was instilled in people who had at heart the interests of posterity, as embodied in their own family. Inheritance at once prompted exertion, instilled responsibility, and preserved continuity.
The Rise of the Meritocracy
Michael Young
The Optimist Razor
When choosing who to spend time with, prioritize spending more time with optimists.
Pessimists see the doors that are closed. Optimists see the doors that are open—and probably kick down the closed doors.
Remember: Pessimists sound smart, optimists get rich.
“Razors” Are Rules of Th...
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