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Likewise, public policy is not a parlor game of prediction; it is about long-term choices rooted in thoughtful consideration of costs and alternatives. Asking crowds to guess about specific events in short-term, mental dart–throwing matches just isn’t much help when trying to navigate in difficult policy waters. “Will Bashar Assad of Syria use chemical weapons at some point in 2013” is an even bet, like putting a chip on one color in roulette. It’s a yes-or-no question, and at some point, you’ve either won or lost the bet. It’s not the same question as “Why would Bashar Assad use chemical weapons?” and it is light-years away from the dilemma of “What should America do if Bashar Assad uses chemical weapons?” The Internet, however, conflates all three of these questions, and it turns every complicated issue into a poll with a one-click radio button offering a quick solution.
The Death of Expertise
Tom Nichols
I’ve often thought that parents and schools overemphasize the value of having the right answers all the time. It seems to me that the best students in school tend to be the worst at learning from their mistakes, because they have been conditioned to associate mistakes with failure instead of opportunity. This is a major impediment to their progress. Intelligent people who embrace their mistakes and weaknesses substantially outperform their peers who have the same abilities but bigger ego barriers.
Distinguish between you as the designer of your machine and you as a worker with your machine.
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