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Equal-weight models do well because they are not susceptible to accidents of sampling. The immediate implication of Dawes’s work deserves to be widely known: you can make valid statistical predictions without prior data about the outcome that you are trying to predict. All you need is a collection of predictors that you can trust to be correlated with the outcome.
Noise
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein
This sophomore group, in contrast, was looking at the feedback they were getting and thinking hard about it. They were processing what they had seen in others’ work and trying to figure out how to apply it to their own. They were given the space to do it and an incentive to keep working, which heightened their motivation. When I’d taught, my students felt the grade I’d given described them. But this sophomore class understood the score described only their level of performance on a specific skill at that particular time. If they didn’t like it, they had the ability to change it.
The populist ideal of electoral democracy, for all its elegance and attractiveness, is largely irrelevant in practice, leaving elected officials mostly free to pursue their own notions of the public good or to respond to party and interest group pressures.
Democracy for Realists
Christopher H. Achen, Larry M. Bartels
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