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Geographical, biological and economic forces create constraints. Yet these constraints leave ample room for surprising developments, which do not seem bound by any deterministic laws. This conclusion disappoints many people, who prefer history to be deterministic. Determinism is appealing because it implies that our world and our beliefs are a natural and inevitable product of history. It is natural and inevitable that we live in nation states, organise our economy along capitalist principles, and fervently believe in human rights. To acknowledge that history is not deterministic is to acknowledge that it is just a coincidence that most people today believe in nationalism, capitalism and human rights.
Sapiens
Yuval Noah Harari
“Da Shi, have you ever … considered certain ultimate philosophical questions? For example, where does Man come from? Where does Man go? Where does the universe come from? Where does the universe go? Et cetera.” “Nope.” “Never?” “Never.” “You must see the stars. Aren’t you awed and curious?” “I never look at the sky at night.” “How is that possible? I thought you often worked the night shift?” “Buddy, when I work at night, if I look up at the sky, the suspect is going to escape.” “We really have nothing to say to each other. All right. Drink!” “To be honest, even if I were to look at the stars in the sky, I wouldn’t be thinking about your philosophical questions. I have too much to worry about! I gotta pay the mortgage, save for the kid’s college, and handle the endless stream of cases.… I’m a simple man without a lot of complicated twists and turns. Look down my throat and you can see out my ass. Naturally, I don’t know how to make my bosses like me. Years after being discharged from the army, my career is going nowhere. If I weren’t pretty good at my job, I would have been kicked out a long time ago.… You think that’s not enough for me to worry about? You think I’ve got the energy to gaze at stars and philosophize?” “You’re right. All right, drink up!” “But, I did indeed invent an ultimate rule.” “Tell me.” “Anything sufficiently weird must be fishy.” “What … what kind of crappy rule is that?” “I’m saying that there’s always someone behind things that don’t seem to have an explanation.” “If you had even basic knowledge of science, you’d know it’s impossible for any force to accomplish the things I experienced. Especially that last one. To manipulate things at the scale of the universe—not only can you not explain it with our current science, I couldn’t even imagine how to explain it outside of science. It’s more than supernatural. It’s super-I-don’t-know-what.…” “I’m telling you, that’s bullshit. I’ve seen plenty of weird things.” “Then tell me what I should do next.” “Keep on drinking. And then sleep.” “Fine.”
The Three-Body Problem
Cixin Liu and Ken Liu
It is an iron rule of history that what looks inevitable in hindsight was far from obvious at the time.
Sapiens
Yuval Noah Harari
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