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Trump was not done. Nor was he satisfied that it sufficed for the United States, the top nuclear power in the world, to issue an unprecedented threat. Within the White House but not publicly, Trump proposed sending a tweet declaring that he was ordering all U.S. military dependents—thousands of the family members of 28,500 troops—out of South Korea. The act of removing the dependents would almost certainly be read in North Korea as a signal that the United States was seriously preparing for war. On December 4, McMaster had received a warning at the White House. Ri Su-yong, the vice chairman of the Politburo, had told intermediaries “that the North would take the evacuation of U.S. civilians as a sign of imminent attack.” Withdrawing dependents was one of the last cards to play. The possible tweets scared the daylights out of the Pentagon leadership—Mattis and Dunford. A declaration of intent to do so from the U.S. commander in chief on Twitter was almost unthinkable. A tweet about ordering all military dependents out of South Korea could provoke Kim. The leader of a country like North Korea that only recently had acquired nuclear weapons and had many fewer nukes than a potential adversary could be trigger-happy. A use-it-or-lose-it mind-set could take hold. The tweet did not go out. But Trump wouldn’t drop the matter, and raised the issue of withdrawing U.S. military dependents with Senator Graham. On December 3, before Trump and Kim’s war of words, and after a North Korean ICBM test, Graham had advocated removing military families from South Korea. “It’s crazy to send spouses and children to South Korea,” he said on CBS’s Face the Nation. He suggested making South Korea an unaccompanied tour for service members and said, “I think it’s now time to start moving American dependents out of South Korea.” Now, a month later, when Trump called, Graham seemed to have had a change of heart. “You need to think long and hard before you make that decision,” Graham said. “Because when you make that decision, it is hard to go back. The day you do that is the day you rock the South Korean stock market and the Japanese economy. That is a big frigging deal.” “You think I should wait?” Trump asked. “Mr. President,” Graham said, “I don’t think you should ever start this process unless you’re ready to go to war.”
A good example is our trade in Fiat in 2003. We made 20 percent in a month on that single transaction. At the time, the broad market was rallying sharply in a rebound from the preceding bear market. Fiat had a big rights issue.5 At the same time, Deutsche Bank had announced that they would be disposing of their industrial holdings, and Fiat was one of their positions. Rather than exercise their rights, which would increase their position, Deutsche Bank decided to sell their rights. You had a situation where the market was going up, and while Fiat should have been going the same way, it was actually going down because of a big seller. And that seller was not driven by fundamentals, but rather by a desire to rebalance their portfolio to reduce industrial holdings. The rights were especially cheap because of the Deutsche Bank selling. We bought the rights, which effectively gave us a cheap call. Buying the Fiat rights was a trade where everything lined up. First, the market was very strong. Second, the stock was substantially underperforming the market and its sector for two technical reasons—there was a rights issue and a large seller for technical reasons that had nothing to do with the fundamentals. Third, the rights provided you with a way to put on a large position for a small capital outlay. Fourth, because Deutsche Bank was a large seller of rights and the stock was difficult to borrow, the rights were trading below their intrinsic value.
Hedge Fund Market Wizards
Jack D. Schwager
The bending and extending motion of the wrist when shooting a basketball is called the wrist snap. In 1996, Roger Miller and Stuart Bartlett conducted the study Contributions to Ball Speed on a Free Throw. In this experiment, their subjects were 15- to 19-year-old boys. They analyzed the amount of force each body part contributed to a free throw. According to their study, 59% of the force to the ball came from the wrist snap.12 Contrary to popular belief, the arms and shoulders contributed more than the legs (81% upper body compared to 19% lower body). Your wrist snap should bring your control fingers to the center of the ball at release for a straight shot every time. It also should be natural. Why? Because it will increase your range. You will be generating more power with your wrist. A natural wrist snap puts your wrist in its strongest position. Furthermore, it will provide more consistency. A natural wrist snap is a universal trait among great shooters.
Straight Shooter
Bob Fisher
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