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The last supervolcano eruption on Earth was at Toba, in northern Sumatra, seventy-four thousand years ago. No one knows quite how big it was other than that it was a whopper. Greenland ice cores show that the Toba blast was followed by at least six years of “volcanic winter” and goodness knows how many poor growing seasons after that. The event, it is thought, may have carried humans right to the brink
A Short History of Nearly Everything
Bill Bryson
Protectionism “The Chinese Communist Party made a deliberate decision in the late 1990s to build the biggest steel industry in the world, even though China lacks most of the things you need to make steel—namely raw materials and affordable energy,” said Jim Darsey, executive vice president of Nucor Corporation—the biggest steelmaker in the United States—in a submission to the U.S. Congress. In 2015, the U.S. steel industry lost twelve thousand jobs. That year, facing massive overcapacity problems at home, China exported 112 million tons of steel, more than what was produced by the United States, Canada, and Mexico combined, a feat made all the more amazing given that ten years earlier, China was still a net importer of steel. “These imports aren’t coming here because the United States is an uncompetitive place to make steel. The opposite is true. We have plentiful raw materials, low-priced energy; and we have the most productive steel workers in the world,” said Darsey. “But we cannot compete with foreign governments who are willing to pour unlimited resources into growing an industry that does not have to yield any rate of return.” According to researchers Usha Haley and George Haley in their 2013 book, Subsidies to Chinese Industry, between 2000 and 2007, subsidies to China’s steel producers rose 3,800%, with the bulk coming through subsidized thermal coal, coking coal, and electricity. In 2007, energy subsidies to the steel industry alone came to $15.7 billion, about as much as Nucor generated in total sales. Something similar happened with paper, another industry mired in overcapacity. In 2008, China took over from the United States as the biggest papermaker in the world, producing paper products that are significantly cheaper than those produced in either the United States or the European Union. Yet China has few forests, and water—another important ingredient in making paper—is relatively scarce. Labor makes up only 4% of the cost of making paper. “In all these capital-intensive industries where labor costs play minor roles . . . in the space of approximately five years, China rose from a net importer to among the largest producers and exporters in the world,” the Haleys write in their book, which tracks Chinese subsidies to steel, paper, glass, and auto parts. The problem is not simply that China is able to dominate those industries it deems important. It’s that the policies that deliver dominance also create a huge amount of waste. “When the government chooses to support certain industries by imposing development policies . . . those industries all end up in overcapacity,” said Fan Gang, one of China’s most prominent economists. “Once we enter into these sorts of policies, each level of government then gives out its own subsidies, everyone in the market hustles, and in a short period it turns into an overcapacity industry.”
China's Great Wall of Debt
Dinny McMahon
Pre-Suasion seeks to add to the body of behavioral science information that general readers find both inherently interesting and applicable to their daily lives. It identifies what savvy communicators do before delivering a message to get it accepted. Their sharp timing is what is new here. Older voices have recognized the wisdom of undertaking prior action to secure subsequent success. In asserting the value of early planning, the ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu declared, “Every battle is won before it is fought.” Consultants are taught to gain a client’s business by first attaining the status of “trusted advisor.” Dale Carnegie assured us, “You can make more friends in two months by becoming genuinely interested in other people than you can in two years by trying to get people interested in you.” All wise counsel. But there’s a drawback: days, weeks, or months of prior activity are required. Is it possible to enhance effectiveness not only within those lengthy time frames but also in an instant—the last instant before a communication is sent? Not only is it possible, it is established.
Pre-Suasion
Robert Cialdini
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