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The margins of safety that you should not compromise on are the ones you control: your rationality and your circle of competence. If, like me, you are a bit lax on your circle of competence, lifetime learning is the best defense. While you are still gathering facts, small bets and diversification help. (Yes, you also get these through an index fund.) Before investing, you should locate the weakest link in your margin of safety and consider whether it alone could make or break your results. Whether your path more closely resembles Bogle’s or Buffett’s, you will reduce your regrets by seeking a margin of safety in five steps. (1) Be clear about your motives, and don’t allow emotions to guide your financial decisions. (2) Recognize that some things can’t be understood and that you don’t understand others. Focus on those that you understand best. (3) Invest with people who are honest and trustworthy, and who are doing something unique and valuable. (4) Favor businesses that will not be destroyed by changing times, commoditization, or excessive debt. (5) Above all, always look for investments that are worth a great deal more than you are paying for them.
Big Money Thinks Small
Joel Tillinghast
The Revolution Becomes a European War Howe’s triumph at Germantown and his seizure of Philadelphia gave satisfaction to the British government, but these events did not lift the depression that had set in when information about Burgoyne’s capture arrived. The term inevitably attached to that event was “disaster.” Just how disastrous the loss of Burgoyne’s army was could not be known immediately, and for several months there was hope in the cabinet that its worst consequence could be avoided. What the cabinet feared was the entrance of France into the war on the side of the American colonies. French action against Britain would transform a rebellion within the empire into a worldwide conflict whose spread would necessarily result in the dispersion of British forces—and almost inevitably the establishment of American independence. Since 1763 the French had husbanded their outrage and dreamed of revenge against the British for the defeat they suffered in the Seven Years War. Not surprisingly, the upheavals in the British colonies alerted the French government to the possibility of splintering the British empire. Choiseul, the foreign minister of Louis XV, recognizing that much of Britain’s strength lay in her colonies and trade with them, watched the rising American disaffection with hope that war would occur. Choiseul, however, also had other problems to think about, for example, how he was going to rebuild French naval and military power. This problem existed because of another—a treasury depleted by the Seven Years War. The agents he sent to America in the 1760s sent back opinions that rebellion would occur, but not immediately, an assessment Choiseul accepted without question.1
The Glorious Cause
Robert Middlekauff
The right foundation can support a rocket launch. The core principles of a stable creative mindset are: You are a creative person. The world is abundant and full of possibilities. Your situation can always be changed. You can use your creativity to create the change you seek. Creativity is natural and healthy but requires practice. Creativity is ultimate personal power. Unfortunately, you can’t adopt a creative mindset just by reading this book. Repetition of corresponding actions is necessary to develop it. Changing your mindset requires the consistent effort of putting this set of beliefs to work. Think you’re creative? Great, then prove it by creating something: today, tomorrow, and the next day. Only when you commit to a program of creative development will your old ideas about talent and destiny start to melt away.
Creative Calling
Chase Jarvis
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