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Thaler’s list grew quickly. A lot of the items on it fell into a bucket that he eventually would label “The Endowment Effect.” The endowment effect was a psychological idea with economic consequences. People attached some strange extra value to whatever they happened to own, simply because they owned it, and so proved surprisingly reluctant to part with their possessions, or endowments, even when trading them made economic sense. But in the beginning, Thaler wasn’t thinking in categories. “At the time, I’m just collecting a list of stupid things people do,” he said. Why were people so slow to sell vacation homes that, if they hadn’t bought them in the first place and were offered them now, they would never buy? Why were NFL teams so reluctant to trade their draft picks when it was obvious that they could often get more than the players were worth in exchange? Why were investors so reluctant to sell stocks that had fallen in value, even when they admitted that they would never buy those stocks at their current market prices? There was no end of things people did that economic theory had trouble explaining. “When you start looking for the endowment effect,” Thaler said, “you see it everywhere.” His feelings about his own field were not so very different from his feelings for Monopoly as a kid: It was boring, and unnecessarily so. Economics was meant to be the study of an aspect of human nature, but it had ceased to pay attention to human nature. “Thinking about this stuff was way more interesting than doing economics,” he said. When he called his observations to the attention of his fellow economists, they weren’t interested. “The first thing they’d always say was, ‘Of course we know people make mistakes every now and then, but the mistakes are random, and they’ll wash out in the market,’” recalled Thaler. Thaler no longer believed that.

The Undoing Project

Michael Lewis

Over radio, fear had fed on fear; everyone had wanted a happy ending, and when eventually it did end, the best possible construction was put upon the agreement. Chamberlain was the hero of the hour, as much in America as in Britain. It took a while for people to realize that he was a weak old man who had sold out a resolute and embattled ally for a worthless Hitler promise. Churchill knew it, and said, “Britain and France had to choose between war and dishonor. They chose dishonor. They will have war.” Roosevelt knew it; to his ambassador in Portugal he wrote, “The dictator threat from Europe is a good deal closer to the United States.” Murrow and Shirer knew it. Meeting in Paris, they agreed that war was likely after next year’s harvest. And H. V. Kaltenborn knew it; even before Chamberlain’s visit to Berchtesgaden he said, “My own feeling is that it will be little more than a truce. There is grave doubt as to whether or not the visit will bring peace.”

The Glory and the Dream

William Manchester

start thinking about how you can cultivate the state of mind and actions that will unleash your creative power. Creativity—the power to make your ideas manifest—is never a waste of time. It’s the lever that matters the most.

Creative Calling

Chase Jarvis

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