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The choice of how you allocate your time to finding new things or taking advantage of things you’ve already discovered is part of the classic explore-exploit problem.[*] How much time should you spend exploring the landscape for new opportunities and how much of your time should you spend exploiting things that are already positive expected value? Exploitation in this sense doesn’t mean manipulating or doing something underhanded. It just means that you’re taking advantage of an opportunity that you already have. For a company that has an established product, resources devoted to continuing to market, produce, and sell that product are spent on exploiting something they have already discovered, like Blockbuster exploiting its profitable business model of renting and selling videos in physical stores. On the other hand, resources spent on research and development of new products or strategies are being devoted to exploration, the discovery of new products or business models the company might pursue. Because companies have limited resources, you can immediately see the importance of figuring out the explore-exploit balance. If they don’t get it right, exploring too little, they stop innovating, sticking with what used to work until they are out of business. Of course, the same is true in our personal lives, with how we allocate our resources of time, money, effort, and attention between exploring new opportunities and sticking with the ones we already have.
Now I was hearing that this impression and all the official statements that led to it were false. It was not only the president who could make the decision and issue the orders, and not even (as most people probably assumed, if they thought about it) the secretary of defense or the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the Pentagon, but commanders in the field thousands of miles from Washington who thought their forces might be about to be destroyed. Similar letters, the control officer told me, had gone out to all the unified commanders with nuclear forces and to the commander of the Strategic Air Command in Omaha.
The Doomsday Machine
Daniel Ellsberg
Vivian was still single because she would have the right person or no one. We had a lot in common. We both were avid readers and enjoyed plays, movies, and music. As we both very much wanted children, we also agreed on the principles for raising them. We planned to give them all the education they wanted, teach them to think for themselves rather than simply accept received wisdom from experts and authority, and encourage them to choose their own calling in life. Both somewhat introverted, I more so, we looked forward to an academic life with its collection of smart educated people, teaching, research, and travel. There wouldn’t be a lot of money but it would be enough. What was important to us was how we spent our time and the people, family, friends, and colleagues, with whom we shared it. Though we shared many interests, we also had differences that were enriching.
A Man for All Markets
Edward O. Thorp
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